This year Türkiye hosts the conference and holds the COP Presidency, while Australia presides over the negotiations. All Parties meet as climate impacts intensify, the latest science confirms that overshooting 1.5°C can no longer be avoided, and climate finance budgets tighten amid geopolitical fragmentation. Therefore, the question is whether a strained multilateral system can still deliver on promises and commitments since Paris, and support implementation on the ground.

There are 7 key issues to watch: 

1. Climate finance: Negotiators in Antalya are looking at how to turn the Baku–Belém Roadmap towards $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 into credible action, and the COP29 and COP30 presidencies are expected to set out more detail and a monitoring system. Developing countries are concerned that falling aid could put the $300 billion annual goal agreed at COP29 at risk, and they are pushing for public finance commitments. Access is a central issue, and an Access to Finance statement from the October pre-COP calls for simpler procedures at climate funds and development banks. Debt burdens and the role of private capital remain open questions.

2. Adaptation and resilience: Countries need ot make the Belém Adaptation Indicators operational under the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), including agreeing on the technical work needed to develop methodologies, so that the GGA can be finalised at COP32. They are also expected to show how they will deliver the COP30 commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035.

3. Just transition: Parties are working out how to put the just transition mechanism agreed at COP30 into operation, including its functions, institutional arrangements and relationship with existing UNFCCC processes. One possible outcome is a technical support hub where countries can exchange experience and tools.

4. Mitigation and fossil fuels: Parties must decide whether to extend the Sharm el-Sheikh Mitigation Work Programme beyond 2026. The harder political question is how to advance the transition away from fossil fuels after COP30 failed to agree a roadmap, at a time when high oil and gas prices are raising fuel and food costs worldwide.

5. Second Global Stocktake (GST2): COP31 is expected to launch the second stocktake, which concludes in 2028. The challenge is to sustain political ambition and produce a credible assessment of collective progress as the world faces the prospect of exceeding 1.5°C.

6. Loss and damage: Parties are reviewing progress on the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, including its governance, how easily countries can access it and the support it gives to particularly vulnerable countries.

7. Implementation and economic transformation: Outside the formal negotiations, the Turkish Presidency is promoting practical initiatives on electrification, green industrialisation, resilient cities, food security and finance for bankable projects. Its flagship pledge asks countries to meet 35% of final energy use with electricity by 2035, compared with 23% today.

ECDPM will be at COP31 to analyse these dynamics through a Europe-Mediterranean lens.

Follow our COP31 dossier for timely analysis, policy briefs and multimedia outputs before, during and after the conference.

Our involvement at COP31

1. Enhancing implementation of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) in the Mediterranean
   12 November, 12:45 to 13:45
   ECDPM, through the Mediterranean Alliance of Think Tanks on Climate Change (MATTCCh), co-organises a side event at the Mediterranean Pavilion. Hanne Knaepen is the facilitator. 
    
2. Clean trade and the Global South in an age of carbon borders
   13 November, 10:15 to 11:15
   Alfonso Medinilla speaks at a side-event organised by the Observer Research Foundation America at the Ethiopia Pavilion.
    
3. From Antalya to Addis: How to strengthen Africa-Europe Partnerships towards common priorities
   13 November, 17h45 to 18h45
   ECDPM and ECCO co-organise a side event at the Ethiopia Pavilion. Alfonso Medinilla is a speaker.
    
4. Powering green industry across MENA: Aligning electrification, investment and industrial policy
   16 November, 10:00 to 11:00
   ECDPM and the Carboun Institute host a side event at the Arab Climate Pavilion.
    
5. Critical for Whom? From Mineral Endowments to Investable Green Industry
   17 November, 16:15 to 17:15 
   Alfonso Medinilla speaks at a side-event organised by the Africa Trade Policy Working Group and the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association at the Mediterranean Pavilion.
    
6. COP31 debrief: Perspectives from across the Mediterranean 
   26 November, 13:00 to 14:30
   ECDPM, the Mediterranean Alliance of Think Tanks on Climate Change and ECCO Think host a virtual dialogue to debrief COP31.

Our work

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If you would like to know about our work on climate adaptation, just transition and food security, give us feedback or share your thoughts on specific issues, you can get in touch with our experts via our people page. For enquiries related to outreach and media, please contact Isabell Wutz.

Isabell Wutz