The cost of Europe’s divisions in the Middle East
Authors
The authors of this brief argue that the EU’s failure to uphold international humanitarian law in Gaza and Lebanon – contrasting sharply with its proclaimed values, commitments and response to Russia’s war against Ukraine – will undermine its efforts to build strategic, long-term partnerships with the rest of the world.
Summary
The EU’s response to Israel’s wars in the Middle East reveals an inconsistency in its approach to international humanitarian law. While the EU swiftly and unequivocally condemned war crimes committed by Hamas on 7 October 2023 and by Russia during its invasion of Ukraine, its reaction to what international courts have now recognised as Israeli war crimes is hesitant and ambiguous.
As the humanitarian situation in Gaza becomes ever more unbearable, this equivocal diplomatic stance challenges the EU's proclaimed commitment to a rules-based international order and raises serious questions about the uniformity of its principles in applying humanitarian law across different geopolitical contexts. The EU's perceived selective condemnation also risks eroding its diplomatic credibility, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and across the wider Global South.
Introduction
On 21 November, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants against Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant for crimes against humanity and war crimes in the prosecution of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, as well as Hamas leader Ibrahim Al-Masri for the mass killings and related crimes of 7 October 2023. The EU once again demonstrated its divisions in the wake of these arrest warrants. Several member states (including Italy, Ireland and Belgium) stated that they would arrest Benjamin Netanyahu if he travelled to their territory. France and Hungary stated they would not, and most other member states remain unclear on their stance.
As outgoing EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell mentioned at the second meeting of the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution organised by Belgium and the EU on 28 November, the Southern Neighborhood is a key focus of the new European Commission. This is illustrated by the appointment of Dubravka Šuica as the commissioner for the Mediterranean – a newly created post in the incoming European Commission. Her tasks will include the development of a Pact for the Mediterranean and an EU strategy for the Middle East, with a view to the day after the war in Gaza. Yet, the EU’s divisions (and some of its member states’ perceived unwillingness to act) highlight its incapacity to respond effectively to Israel’s wars in the Middle East following the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks, undermining its ability to support a diplomatic process aimed at promoting peace and protecting civilian lives.
Further, the EU’s divisions and prevarications in the face of recognised Israeli war crimes in the Middle East stand in stark contrast with its unequivocal condemnation of war crimes committed by Hamas on 7 October and by Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. This also calls into question the EU’s advocacy for a rules-based international order and its respect of humanitarian law following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This inconsistency has undermined its position, credibility and legitimacy in the Middle East and North Africa region, and the wider Global South.
This inconsistency has undermined the EU's position, credibility and legitimacy in the Middle East and North Africa region, and the wider Global South.
Useless wars and atrocious war crimes – for what?
On 7 October 2023, Hamas committed war crimes, potentially amounting to crimes against humanity, killing 1,139 persons in Israel, including 657 Israeli civilians and 38 children. On this day, 252 people were abducted and taken to Gaza as hostages, of whom nearly 100 remain in captivity. In response, Israel’s latest wars have not only targeted Hamas and Hezbollah but also devastated the lives and livelihoods of the people of Gaza and Lebanon (see table 1 below). The UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory has qualified Israel’s conduct in the Gaza Strip as war crimes, and potentially crimes against humanity; and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ruled that it is plausible that Israel's actions in Gaza Strip could amount to genocide.
Table 1: Estimated deaths, injuries and damage in Gaza and Lebanon
Furthermore, approximately 1.84 million people across the Gaza Strip are experiencing acute food insecurity, with nearly 133,000 people facing catastrophic food insecurity. With the recent Israeli ban on UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) activities in Israel, which deems UNRWA a terror group and bans its activities in Israel within 90 days, the situation is likely to get worse.
Despite the assassinations of Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah, former leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah respectively, Israel’s stated war goals – returning hostages, undermining Hamas and Hezbollah’s ability to endanger Israeli security and a new regional order – and lasting peace in the region seem as unreachable as ever. While a first step in the right direction, the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal concluded on 26 November 2024 is unlikely to solve mounting regional tensions. Countless experts have warned that rather than securing peace and security in the region, Israel’s wars and the destruction they have wrought are creating fertile breeding grounds for further unrest and instability.
Rather than securing peace and security in the region, Israel’s wars and the destruction they have wrought are creating fertile breeding grounds for further unrest and instability.
A division with serious geopolitical consequences
The Israeli wars in the Middle East do not come in a geopolitical vacuum, but at a time when Russia and China are promoting a new world order via the BRICS and other fora, while the re-election of Donald Trump further shakes up the existing rules-based international order.
The EU and its member states have done little, if anything, to promote the conditions for a negotiated settlement. Despite half-hearted calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and improved humanitarian access, on the whole EU member states have failed to present a united front and have appeared weak, faltering and hypocritical to the world. While they condemned the brutal Hamas terrorist attacks in the strongest possible terms, they have largely failed to condemn Israel’s war crimes and disrespect for international law due to divisions between member states.
The inability of EU member states to speak with one voice and vote together was very apparent in the various UN votes on the conflict.
Table 2: UN votes on Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories since 7 October 2023
* Results of vote here
** UN news item here
*** UN news item here
Some EU member states have taken symbolic political actions, but these actions have remained isolated. Countries such as Belgium, Spain and Ireland have recognised Palestine as a state and expressed the intention to intervene in the context of South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, while Spain and Ireland called for the EU to suspend its association agreement with Israel. Spain also banned exports and imports of weapons to and from Israel.
Others – like Germany, which accounted for 30% of Israel’s arms imports in 2023 – have slowed down their weapon sales to Israel, but insist they will continue to sell weapons that allow Israel to ‘defend’ itself. France called for a halt on arms deliveries to Israel for use in Gaza and Lebanon, and unsuccessfully attempted to ban Israeli companies from the Euronaval Salon defence fair in Paris.
Yet, the EU and its member states have not taken more concrete actions to halt the conflict, such as a weapons embargo or meaningful economic, diplomatic and political sanctions.
The cost of division and accusations of double standards
It takes a life to build trust and a day to destroy it. On the whole, the EU has failed to uphold international humanitarian law in Gaza and Lebanon, which stands in stark contrast to its values and commitments, and its response to Ukraine, which promoted the country’s right to self-determination and condemned Putin’s war crimes in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This has prompted accusations of double standards from UN Secretary-General António Guterres and partners across the Global South. Several countries have not only called for a ceasefire but have also taken concrete actions to condemn acts committed in this war. Examples include South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, which is supported by 14 countries, and the Nicaragua legal case against Germany, accusing the country of “facilitating the commission of genocide”.
The new EU commissioner for the Mediterranean has been mandated to strengthen Palestinian authority and help rebuild Gaza, which would take about 80 years. But this will be an uphill battle and one that can only be addressed by being brave and bringing coherence between words and actions. At the very least, the EU-Israel Association Council should be convened, and real pressure placed on Israel to respect the Association Treaty and wider obligations under international law, or face real consequences up to and including suspension of the treaty. The EU will pay the price of its silence and inaction in its attempts to build strategic and long-term partnerships with the rest of the world.
At the very least, the EU-Israel Association Council should be convened, and real pressure placed on Israel to respect the Association Treaty and wider obligations under international law, or face real consequences.
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