From capacity to catalyst: Sizing the additional export finance an EU guarantee could unlock

Summary

European companies face a structural financing gap when competing for strategic projects in emerging markets and developing economies. While competitor economies deploy official export credit at scale, European export credit agencies (ECAs) are often constrained by capital limits, country exposure ceilings and reinsurance availability. The EU’s Global Gateway strategy requires financial guarantees capable of matching this competitive challenge. This study quantifies how much additional export finance volume an EU guarantee could generate.

Drawing on a mixed-method approach – including secondary data, structured surveys of 14 ECAs and 19 stakeholder interviews – we estimate that an EU guarantee could unlock €7.7 billion in additional ECA-backed export finance annually. This implies approximately €50–55 billion over the next EU multiannual financial framework (MFF) period, expanding in-scope ECA activity by roughly one third. Critically, 50–80% of this amount represents new origination rather than the release of existing pipeline constraints, which is a testament to the catalytic potential of an EU guarantee beyond simple capacity relief. Geographic and sectoral priorities align closely with Global Gateway objectives, with Africa, Asia, Latin America, transport infrastructure and climate and energy dominating ECA assessments.