Predicting the future of EU international cooperation and development – First indications from Jean-Claude Juncker’s new Commission

It's a dangerous thing trying to predict the future, the EU’s international development priorities are no exception. The Agenda for Change, the EU’s guiding development policy since 2011, was almost good to go when the Arab Spring was suddenly in full swing, requiring a hasty rewrite that re-emphasised governance and human rights. So, what are the recurring themes that are likely to be the focus of the new Commission for 2014 – 2019? EU Commission President Juncker outlined a list of focus areas in the mission letter for the newly renamed ‘International Cooperation and Development’ portfolio. Commissioner-designate Neven Mimica specified his top three priorities during his hearing: 1^st Priority - the post-2015 framework In 2015 the MDGs will be followed up with a new set of post-2015 development goals, and a new binding global treaty on climate change will hopefully be agreed.  This represents a unique opportunity to integrate results of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations in the agenda framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It is clear that Juncker wants Europe to play an important leading role in both processes. In his written response to the Parliament, Mimica outlined his wish for an ambitious, universal and transformational post-2015 framework. During the hearing he stated his goal for a comprehensive European approach; ensuring coherence among the Commissioners. Specifically, he elaborated on the limits of the MDGs, and said the new SDGs should achieve a balance between the economic, social and environmental pillars of sustainable development. Furthermore, he noted the important link between climate and development, stating they are part of the EU’s common external action. Mimica also outlined his support for ambitious targets on climate and energy, and systematic mainstreaming of these issues within development programmes and projects. All wise words and nothing anyone would disagree with. But the EU’s track record, in both global engagement with a collective EU voice and the mainstreaming of climate change across the Commission and EU member-states activities, is not as strong as it should be. Unless the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice President, Federica Mogherini, takes up a strong lead in mainstreaming sustainable development throughout EU’s foreign policy and plays an active role in championing EU’s external climate action, it is unlikely that Mimica will be able to pull it off alone with the Climate Action and Energy Commissioner. Marshaling this will be a question of skillful alliance building. Arguably the bigger challenge for the Commission and Mimica will be directing and pushing through the kind of change management needed to implement the post-2015 framework across the Commission. 2^nd Priority - The future of EU-Africa relations and a post-Cotonou Framework Mimica’s second priority is to launch and negotiate a post-Cotonou framework and to strengthen the EU’s strategic partnership with Africa. This EU-Africa partnership is underpinned by a political statement with a very different character from the legal framework provided by the Cotonou Partnership Agreement. Interestingly, the strengthening of the EU’s strategic partnership with Africa is mentioned as a priority in Juncker’s letters to Commissioners across four portfolios: International Cooperation and Development; Trade; Migration and Home Affairs; and European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations. The Africa-EU strategic partnership got a lift with a well-attended EU-Africa Summit in April 2014, and the Commission has done its homework in creating better alignment in the Pan-African Programme with the Development Cooperation Instrument (DCI). Whether this prioritisation will give the political dialogue in the EU-Africa partnership a much needed invigoration remains to be seen. The Cotonou Agreement between the 79 African, Caribbean and Pacific Group (ACP) group of states and the EU is due to expire in 2020. The agreement manages billions of euros in aid, and Mimica sees the launch of a broad public consultation as an important start to EU reflections on the future of the partnership. He stated: “it cannot be a simple continuation of the past”, a sentiment echoed in the ACP’s own further advanced reflection process. Yet, how much both parties are really willing to entertain a really critical reflection on the past, and frankly put on the table their interests has always been a challenge. Throughout his hearing Mimica emphasised the importance of the EU building partnerships in development with Europe being seen not as “payer but a player”. Whether this really indicates a serious move away from a relationship predominantly based on historical ties and aid towards a more strategic relationship based on a political partnership and enhanced cooperation will be something to watch. 3^rd Priority - Policy Coherence for Development? Or something else? The third priority, policy coherence for development, came across during the many questions and answers in Mimica’s hearing and throughout Juncker’s mission letters to the Commissioners. President Juncker set up several working groups in the College of Commissioners, underlining their mandates to work together. Considerable skepticism remains whether this will be the ‘great leap forward’ for policy coherence for development. Take for example migration and Europe’s borders. For the development portfolio, Mimica stressed that the EU’s development money should not be directly focused on “building the walls in Europe […] but to dismantle the walls in countries of origin”.  Yet, the Commissioner for Migration and Home Affairs, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice President and the Commissioner for International Cooperation and Development are all mandated to work together to improve cooperation with developing countries, including on re-admission issues. Collective action on migration could be positive or negative for development depending on how this cooperation is implemented and to what goal.  During his hearing, Mimica outlined a nuanced approach to migration noting that the majority of African migrants migrate within the African continent. He added, legal migration options should be improved as well as addressing the social and economic conditions within Africa. Commissioner designate Mimica presented himself as the “commissioner of coordination and coherent policies” – and not of subordination. In the spirit of policy coherence for development, Mimica advocated moving away from a silo mentality within the College of Commissioners. This would be great if he can pull it off.  From ECDPM’s past work on policy coherence for development, we know for it to be successful, Mimica will need to focus his direct high level political sponsorship in a limited number of policy areas to have something tangible to show. Overall, commissioner designate Mimica certainly proved himself well-prepared and competent, although some believe he received less of grilling than other commission candidates. His true test will be in follow-through on good ideas many of which while worthy are neither new nor subject to quick wins. The views presented here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of ECDPM.  Photo courtesy of European Parliament If you are interested in ECDPM’s wealth of material on leadership in EU External Action, as well our forward looking work on the challenges ahead for EU Development Cooperation, please download, read and share some of the following publications that form ECDPM’s research and facilitation work as a non-partisan broker. We have grouped this relatively small selection of our extensive back-catalogue under the following thematic headings: 1. On new Commission overall 2. On Post 2015 3. On The Future of Cotonou and the EU Strategic Partnership with Africa 4. On Policy Coherence for Development & Migration For more publications please search under our Topics or use the Search function at ecdpm.org where you can filter your search results to get what you need. On new Commission overall Our Collective Interest: Why Europe’s problems need global solutions and global problems need European action The Top Jobs in Commissioners’ Private Offices – Planning Fantasy Football with your Team The European Union’s International Cooperation: Recent Developments and Future Challenges On Post 2015 Run-up to 2015: A Moment Truth for EU External Climate Action? Europe and the Sustainable Development Goals Bringing Policy Coherence for Development into the Post-2015 Agenda – Challenges and Prospects Video: Debapriya Chattacharya on the Post-2015 and MDG debate at the European Development Days 2013 Video: EL Khidir Daloum on conflict and post-2015 with Anna Knoll at European Development Days 2013 The Post-2015 Development Framework: Issues, Challenges, and Opportunities Will a post-2015 development framework acknowledge migration? Joining Forces for Peace Post-2015 Post-2015: Four things the EU should consider to achieve “A Decent Life for All’ On Future of Cotonou and Strategic Partnership with Africa The Global Game Has Changed: What Role for Europe-Africa Relations? The Challenges of Global Governance and the Emerging World Order: What Role for the ACP-EU Partnership? Beyond the 2014 Summit: Which Way Forward for EU-Africa Relations? Building a sustainable partnership for the future? The EU-Africa relations in the run-up to the 2014 Summit Global changes, emerging players and evolving ACP-EU relations: Towards a common agenda for action?  What future for the ACP and the Cotonou Agreement? Political Dialogue on Human Rights under Article 8 of the Cotonou Agreement Evaluation of coordination and coherence: In the Application of Article 96 of the Cotonou Partnership The Implementation of the Joint Africa Europe Strategy: Rebuilding Confidence and Commitments A Question of Leadership? Challenges for Africa-EU relations in 2014 African perspectives on Africa-Europe relations The ACP and Europe: What Future for a Privileged Relationship? On Policy Coherence for Development & Migration A Safer Entrance Than Lampedusa? Will Juncker’s New Commission Find Good Solutions for Migration and Development in EU External Action Migration and Mobility in the Africa-EU Partnership: A Breakthrough or More of the Same? The European Experience on PCD: Lessons Learned and Challenges for the Future Insights from Developments in National Policy Coherence for Development Systems: Key Cross Cutting Issues and Dilemmas Putting Policy Coherence for Development into Perspective Promoting Policy Coherence for Development: Exploring new opportunities for measurement Policy Coherence for Development, a shared responsibility indeed Background Note: Informal Development Ministerial Meeting of the Italian Presidency, July 2014 Bringing Policy Coherence for Development into the Post-2015 Agenda – Challenges and Prospects Migration and Development Policies and Practices: A mapping study of eleven European countries and the European Commission In addition to structural support by ECDPM’s institutional partners The Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, and Austria, this publication also benefits from funding from the Department of International Development (DFID), United Kingdom.