1. Exploring the key implementation challenges for the post-2015 agenda Informal CODEV Meeting Jean Bossuyt –ECDPM Head of Strategy Vilnius, 3 October 2013
2. Structure of the presentation Section 1: SETTING THE SCENE What is likely to change in the post 2015 POLICY framework? What do we mean by “transformation”? Section 2: THREE COUNTRY CASE STUDIES to illustrate the shift from the MDG paradigm to the post-2015 agenda (including in terms of “transformation”) to assess current donor (EU) responses and challenges for future external action Section
3: IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES POST-2015
3. 1) SETTING THE SCENE WHAT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE? WHAT DO WE MEAN BY « TRANSFORMATION »?
4. Why is change necessary for the post-2015 framework? Lessons from MDGs Lack of participation in process – post-2015 process more inclusive Focus on social sector, reduced attention to factors important for structural transformation This led to rather technical and apolitical approach MDGs masked growing inequalities Lack of commitments by richer countries Omittance of important development issues Go beyond MDGs, to fulfil vision of promoting sustainable development for all – Business as usual not an option ECDPM A changing context Changing global patterns of power – donor-recipient type relationship of past Changing in understanding of global poverty – focus on multiple dimensions Future challenges Demographic challenges – (growing world population, ageing societies) Environmental challenges – (climate change, unsustainable consumption, loss of land and biodiversity) Economic Challenges (growing middle class, increasing trade and capital flows, increasing South-South economic relations)
5. New elements in the emerging post-2015 agenda Proposed new elements Required policy developments One overarching framework for poverty reduction and sustainable development. Integrated approach towards tackling social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainability, creating synergies between the three dimensions Inclusiveness Structures that allow for active participation, accountability mechanisms and empowerment Transforming Economies Focus on profound structural economic transformation, decent job creation and inclusive growth while ensuring sustainable patterns of consumption and production ‘Leave no one behind’ and tackle inequality Ensuring that no-one is left behind and that inequality does not widen requires addressing structural power and socio-economic inequalities. The HLP proposes to track progress towards goals at all levels of income and disaggregated by various groups.
6. Proposed new elements Required policy developments Guarantee basic living standards Provide access to quality health and education, access to water and sanitation, food security, establish social protection floors for all, … No development without Peace & Security Address the root causes of conflict and violence and build stable, honest, accountable and responsive institutions, build stable and resilient societies. A rights-based-approach Requires addressing justice, equality, equity, good governance and power imbalances impeding the delivery of rights. Empowerment women, youth and marginalized groups Accountability ‘Beyond Aid’ Policy Coherence for Development and Global Collective Action, New partnerships in the spirit of cooperation and mutual accountability, clear responsibilities for all parties and a broader set of means of implementation, such as new financial instruments or dialogue and knowledge sharing Universal Agenda Everyone shares responsibility towards achieving the goals and creating favourable environments for sustainable development ECDPM
7. The concept(s) of transformation in the post-2015 debate Transformations at national level Social transformation • Greater equity in access to services • Social protection • Stability as prerequisite for economic transformation Environmental transformation • Reduce unsustainable use of natural resources Economic transformation • Increase productivity • Diversify economic activities and relationships Global transformations to support national level transformation Transformation in institutions • Without sound institutions, no sustainable development (HLP report) • Transparency and Accountability, Openness • Inclusive political processes
8. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR DEVELOPMENT PRACTICE? POLITICS POWER RELATIONS AND INCENTIVES WHAT TYPE OF EXTERNAL ACTION? INTEGRATED APPROACHES (INTERNATIONAL) DRIVERS OF CHANGE COLLECTIVE ACTION CITIZEN ACTION NEGOTIATION
9. Major change of “software” required
10. What “animal” are we talking about?
11. Integrating politics into development: an ongoing challenge
12. How much “leverage” the EU still has?
13. What incentives for change?
14. Remaining relevant in the post 2015 era
15. 2) THREE CASE STUDIES Tunisia Ethiopia Ukraine
16. Tunisia 1) 2000s: Tunisia excels in terms of MDG performance Strong health, education and extreme poverty eradication indicators 2) 2010-11 reality check: increasing pressure on elitist and centralised development vision system crumbles Missing dimensions: inequality, employment, human, political and civil rights, economic opportunity… ECDPM Page 17
17. Tunisia 3) Ongoing transformation processes in Tunisia: High degree of navel-gazing; root causes of uprising remain largely neglected: 1. Employment and social dialogue decent jobs 2. Regional disparities and uneven economic opportunity inclusive growth 4) Current donor responses: Support to democratisation and political developments Blind scramble for Tunisia’s civil society (5 different mapping studies since 2011)
18. Tunisia 5) Some implications for the EU and development community 1. Translating call for “dignity, freedom, respect and social justice” to cooperation priorities Agenda setting 2. Act as a catalyst (EU and MS by far the biggest donor) for Member states and other DPs Coordination 3. Invest in transfer of knowledge 4. Review relations with Tunisia across European external action Testing ground for Policy Coherence for Development ECDPM Net ODA received in Tunisia Page 19
19. Ethiopia 1) Good student of the MDG paradigm and longstanding donor darling Strong growth figures MDG report 2013: “Ethiopia has made tremendous strides in eradicating extreme poverty, achieving universal primary education, promoting gender equality and empowering women and improving maternal health” Island of stability in the region! 2) Reality Check: Deeply rooted inequality Limited freedom of expression, consistent human rights violations Little respect for social and economic ECDPMrights (labour rights!) Very good on paper…
20. Ethiopia 3) Ongoing transformation processes in Ethiopia Development vision based on technocratic modernization Components: FDI, WTO integration and Massive industrial and infrastructure projects Omissions: governance, fundamental freedoms, socioeconomic indicators, labour rights… (=MDG omissions) 4) Current donor responses: Investments in infrastructure, rural development and macro-economic governance and regional integration EU: history of General Budget Support and preparation of GGDC ECDPM
21. Ethiopia 5) Some implications for the EU and development community 1.Redirect cooperation to include a real and inclusive transformative agenda contextualization 2.Focus on the neglected dimensions of development: • Inclusive growth • Tackling inequality • Political, civil and human rights Rights-based approach 3.Need to move towards a realistic use of leverage in cooperation with Ethiopia
22. Ukraine 1) Performance from an MDG perspective Adapted MDGs (7 goals, 15 targets, 33 indicators) Uneven performance (below progress in region) 2) Reality check : key challenges for stability and development (beyond the MDG framework) Growing inequalities (not only economic but also along political, social, ethnic-cultural lines) Urban-rural divide Deteriorating standards of democracy and rule of law Addressing the challenge of climatic change? ECDPM Page 23
23. Ukraine 3) Ongoing/Planned transformations in Ukraine Modernization of the economy Unclear political reform agenda Joining the “European club” 4) Adequacy current EU responses to support transformation in Ukraine Association Agreement as an incentive for reform Use of leverage (conditionalities on democracy/rule of law) New deals based on common interests (e.g. Black Sea Cooperation)
24. Ukraine 5) Implementation challenges Post-2015 Combining geopolitical, economy and security interests with promotion of values (democracy, HR) Effectively supporting institutional development and democratic governance, provision of high quality public services Inclusive dialogue to facilitate reduction of structural inequalities Technology and capacity transfer ECDPM Page 25
25. 3) EXPLORING KEY IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES OF THE POST-2015 AGENDA
26. So far, much discussion on ‘What?’ but little on the ‘How?’
27. Key implementation issues & challenges • Challenge 1: Recognizing and working with complexity, uncertainty and dynamics in socio-ecological, political and economic systems. Post-2015 may prioritize areas where less knowledge on how to make progress exists – more experimental approaches necessary? • Challenge 2: – Squaring the circle between global goals and national targets: Global goals are only effectively executed when resonating with national plans and targets. Each country to determine management of own transition(s).
28. Key implementation issues & challenges • Challenge 3: Multi-actor approaches likely to be come the norm. This will imply systematic negotiations between actors with competing interests. Mediation and brokerage roles. • Challenge 4: Subsidiarity principle – implementation important at the least centralized scale in ways that are coherent with overall vision – Are local structures/ leaders prepared to implement new goals? How to support local activism to make change happen? • Challenge 5: Integrated approaches are needed. Improvements in one domain may be undermined by failures in others. Synergies need to be sought. In this framework also need for PCD.
29. Key implementation issues & challenges • Challenge 6: Value of financial transfers will diminish. Growing importance of exchange of knowledge on how to carry out major transformations (potential added value of EU experiences) • Challenge 7: Crafting of the required implementation and accountability framework to monitor progress at national, regional and global level through an inclusive process will take time. • Challenge 8: Need for major overhaul institutional set-up, processes, approaches, skills and capacities of “donor agencies”
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